Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt host SC Freiburg at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 4W 2D 4L at Deutsche Bank Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Freiburg are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Eintracht Frankfurt hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for SC Freiburg, with 4 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Eintracht Frankfurt and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
SC Freiburg trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 68% and SC Freiburg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 67% | SC Freiburg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.04 xG and SC Freiburg 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.042 / defence 1.115 | SC Freiburg attack 0.818 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.366. Data: 57 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 57 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 23%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | SC Freiburg 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Eintracht Frankfurt dominate the H2H record, yet SC Freiburg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Freiburg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Frankfurt 50% | SC Freiburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.04 / SC Freiburg 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.042 / def 1.115 | SC Freiburg attack 0.818 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.25
SC Freiburg xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 55% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
Record (9 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 4W | Draws 4 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.51
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.29
1.25
SC Freiburg xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
13%
7.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
3%
34.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.25 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 57 games, going 25W 16D 16L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.54 PPG from 57 outings (25W 13D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.60 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 15W 6D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.21 points per game from 28 outings (9W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.46 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 25W 16D 16L in their last 57 games (1.60 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 25W 13D 19L in their last 57 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or SC Freiburg away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.82 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 61%, SC Freiburg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 57% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 36%; SC Freiburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent matches and 43% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 57% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat SC Freiburg 2-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.04 xG and SC Freiburg 1.25 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SC Freiburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against SC Freiburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 23%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 67%, SC Freiburg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.60 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.