Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV meet at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Deutsche Bank Park, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hamburger SV have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Hamburger SV's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Hamburger SV's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hamburger SV in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt, 0 for Hamburger SV and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Eintracht Frankfurt — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Hamburger SV — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 68% and Hamburger SV 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 65% | Hamburger SV 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.10 xG and Hamburger SV 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.973 / defence 1.093 | Hamburger SV attack 0.749 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.443. Hamburger SV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 31 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 58% | Draw 22% | Hamburger SV 20%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Hamburger SV 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Hamburger SV 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 58% | Draw 22% | Hamburger SV 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.10 / Hamburger SV 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.973 / def 1.093 | Hamburger SV attack 0.749 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Hamburger SV xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 58% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV?
Record (1 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 0W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Hamburger SV (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (0.75x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.61
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.28
1.18
Hamburger SV xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
12%
8.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
3%
39.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.18 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 28W 19D 18L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Hamburger SV's form line: 23W 21D 21L from 65 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.38 for Hamburger SV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.81 PPG from 32 outings (17W 7D 8L).
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 10W 8D 14L from 32 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.72 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 65%.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 28W 19D 18L in their last 65 games (1.58 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 23W 21D 21L in their last 65 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Hamburger SV away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.81 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Eintracht Frankfurt
1
Draws
1
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV?
From 2 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 59%, Hamburger SV 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 69% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 59% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 69% of Hamburger SV's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hamburger SV defy the odds to beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.10 xG and Hamburger SV 1.18 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Hamburger SV outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Hamburger SV attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 58% | Draw 22% | Hamburger SV 20%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Hamburger SV win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 65%, Hamburger SV 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.58 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.