Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 37%, yet in-form Bayer Leverkusen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Eintracht Frankfurt — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Bayer Leverkusen's 2.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

Bayer Leverkusen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Eintracht Frankfurt.

The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen — a Bayer Leverkusen win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 4.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 63% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 68% and Bayer Leverkusen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 61% | Bayer Leverkusen 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.262 / defence 0.920 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.144 / defence 0.714. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.365. Eintracht Frankfurt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.262 — their 1.47 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bayer Leverkusen bring a tight defence (rating 0.714, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output down. Data: built from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 57 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 57.

Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 37% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 35%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.71 | Draw 3.61 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bayer Leverkusen (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 70% (last 10 away games).

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