Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Borussia Mönchengladbach face FC Augsburg.

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Fixture Analysis

Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome FC Augsburg to BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Borussia Mönchengladbach — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Augsburg stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 1.70 PPG versus FC Augsburg's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, FC Augsburg 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2024, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 FC Augsburg — a FC Augsburg win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% and FC Augsburg 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | FC Augsburg 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.74 xG and FC Augsburg 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.057 / defence 0.829 | FC Augsburg attack 0.866 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.351. Data: built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 56 games and FC Augsburg's last 56.

Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 20%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.85 | Draw 3.81 | FC Augsburg 5.09. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 50% (last 10 away games).

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