Bayern München 0-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayern München at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund meet at Fußball Arena München in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bayern München's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München at Fußball Arena München this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fußball Arena München. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Bayern München are significantly better at Fußball Arena München than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Dortmund (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Bayern München have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Borussia Dortmund managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 4–0 with Bayern München winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bayern München and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Bayern München half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Borussia Dortmund half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayern München 62% and Borussia Dortmund 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayern München 75% | Borussia Dortmund 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayern München 1.92 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayern München attack 1.694 / defence 0.728 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.155 / defence 0.700. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.396. Bayern München carry an above-average attack strength of 1.694 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.700 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayern München's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Bayern München games / 60 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayern München 53% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 21%. Fair-value odds: Bayern München 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Borussia Dortmund 4.76. Bayern München hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayern München if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bayern München 40% | Borussia Dortmund 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Fußball Arena München • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayern München 53% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Bayern München 1.92 / Borussia Dortmund 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Bayern München attack 1.694 / def 0.728 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.155 / def 0.700 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Bayern München xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Borussia Dortmund xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Fußball Arena München.
What was the final score in Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bayern München 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Fußball Arena München.
What competition is Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Bayern München a 53% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (5 meetings): Bayern München 4W | Draws 1 | Borussia Dortmund 0W.
What form are Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund in?
Bayern München (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bayern München's attacking strength (1.69x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.16x) against Bayern München's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.87
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Bayern München xG
Total xG
3.09
1.17
Borussia Dortmund xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
3%
32.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Bayern München and 1.17 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Bayern München have picked up 2.18 PPG on a 40W 11D 9L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 36W 13D 11L from 60 games, 2.02 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.18 PPG for Bayern München against 2.02 for Borussia Dortmund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bayern München have posted 2.40 PPG from 30 outings (22W 6D 2L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 14W 9D 7L from 30 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bayern München are averaging 2.83 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.27 scored and 1.27 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayern München
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Bayern München have gone 40W 11D 9L in their last 60 games (2.18 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 36W 13D 11L in their last 60 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayern München at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Bayern München's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayern München at home: 2.40 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Bayern München or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayern München have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bayern München have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayern München won 0-4 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayern München have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayern München
3
Draws
1
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayern München have won 6, Borussia Dortmund have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayern München 53%, Borussia Dortmund 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Bayern München and 57% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayern München home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayern München play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Bayern München's games and 60% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Bayern München's matches and 57% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Bayern München have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bayern München.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Bayern München 0-2 at Fußball Arena München, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 1.92 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.17 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bayern München fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.69 / defence 0.73 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.16 / defence 0.70, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayern München 53% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 21%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Borussia Dortmund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 75%, Borussia Dortmund 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayern München's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayern München 2.18 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.