Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union Berlin make the trip to BayArena to face Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 May 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 5W 2D 3L at BayArena — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 56% and Union Berlin 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 56% | Union Berlin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.80 xG and Union Berlin 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.142 / defence 1.145 | Union Berlin attack 0.663 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.272. Union Berlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Bayer Leverkusen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Bayer Leverkusen games / 32 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 55% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 18%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Union Berlin 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 80% | Union Berlin 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 55% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.80 / Union Berlin 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.142 / def 1.145 | Union Berlin attack 0.663 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Union Berlin xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 15 May 2021 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Bayer Leverkusen 1 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 55% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.66x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.78
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
2.77
0.96
Union Berlin xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
3%
33.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.96 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bayer Leverkusen's recent record stands at 14W 9D 9L from 32 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 8L across 32 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Bayer Leverkusen against 1.44 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bayer Leverkusen have managed 8W 4D 4L from 16 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 4W 5D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.47 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin in 66%.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 14W 9D 9L in their last 32 games (1.59 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 11W 13D 8L in their last 32 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or Union Berlin away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.75 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bayer Leverkusen
4
Draws
1
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, Union Berlin have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for Bayer Leverkusen, 56% for Union Berlin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 44% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 56% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 44% of Union Berlin's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BayArena, Regular Season - 33, as Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.80 xG and Union Berlin 0.96 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Union Berlin attack 0.66 / defence 1.22, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 55% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 18%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 56%, Union Berlin 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.59 PPG, Union Berlin 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.