Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg encounter.

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Full Analysis

BayArena plays host to Bayer Leverkusen versus SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 18 October 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 6W 3D 1L at BayArena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

SC Freiburg (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Bayer Leverkusen, 2.00 for SC Freiburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Across 9 previous meetings, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bayer Leverkusen and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 64% and SC Freiburg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 62% | SC Freiburg 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.07 xG and SC Freiburg 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.079 / defence 0.776 | SC Freiburg attack 0.957 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 2.023 / away 1.400. Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Bayer Leverkusen games / 39 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 61% | Draw 21% | SC Freiburg 18%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | SC Freiburg 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bayer Leverkusen 60% | SC Freiburg 40%.

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