Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BayArena plays host to Bayer Leverkusen versus FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 22 January 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 4W 3D 3L at BayArena — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 1W, FC Augsburg 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 4–1 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 64% versus FC Augsburg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 62% | FC Augsburg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.83 xG and FC Augsburg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.170 / defence 1.157 | FC Augsburg attack 0.738 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.343. Data: 53 Bayer Leverkusen games / 53 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 51% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 22%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | FC Augsburg 4.55. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bayer Leverkusen 60% | FC Augsburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 51% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.83 / FC Augsburg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.170 / def 1.157 | FC Augsburg attack 0.738 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.15
FC Augsburg xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Bayer Leverkusen 5 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 51% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg?
Record (1 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 1W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 1.17x the league average against FC Augsburg's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.74x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.69
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
2.98
1.15
FC Augsburg xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
3%
28.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.15 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bayer Leverkusen's recent record stands at 23W 15D 15L from 53 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 26L across 53 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Augsburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bayer Leverkusen have managed 12W 7D 7L from 26 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 4W 6D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.04 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 23W 15D 15L in their last 53 games (1.58 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 13D 26L in their last 53 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or FC Augsburg away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.65 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 22 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayer Leverkusen
0
Draws
4
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 73%, FC Augsburg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 42% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 31%; FC Augsburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 46% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 42% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat FC Augsburg 5-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.83 xG and FC Augsburg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.17 / defence 1.16 against FC Augsburg attack 0.74 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 51% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 22%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 62%, FC Augsburg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.