Arminia Bielefeld 0-4 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SchücoArena plays host to Arminia Bielefeld versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 3 October 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arminia Bielefeld have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at SchücoArena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at SchücoArena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bayer Leverkusen are 0.90 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Arminia Bielefeld 1W, Bayer Leverkusen 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2021, ended 2–1 with Arminia Bielefeld winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Arminia Bielefeld half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 38% versus Bayer Leverkusen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 38% | Bayer Leverkusen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 0.88 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.645 / defence 0.749 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.276 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.217. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Arminia Bielefeld's defence rating of 0.749 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Arminia Bielefeld games / 40 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 24% | Draw 37% | Bayer Leverkusen 39%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 24% | Draw 37% | Bayer Leverkusen 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 0.88 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.645 / def 0.749 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.276 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Bayer Leverkusen xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Arminia Bielefeld 0 - 4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 24% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 39% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (2 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 1W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 1W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Arminia Bielefeld's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.28x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
24%
4.10
37%
2.73
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.04
1.16
Bayer Leverkusen xG
4.10
24%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
8%
13.11
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 15.0 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.16 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Arminia Bielefeld have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 9W 12D 19L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 18W 11D 11L from 40 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arminia Bielefeld.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 8W 6D 6L from 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.72 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 9W 12D 19L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 18W 11D 11L in their last 40 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.15 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Arminia Bielefeld or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 0-4 on 3 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Arminia Bielefeld
0
Draws
3
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 30%, Bayer Leverkusen 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 45% (Bayer Leverkusen).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Bayer Leverkusen in 35%; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 45% of games; Bayer Leverkusen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 45% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 45% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Arminia Bielefeld.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Arminia Bielefeld 0-4 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 0.88 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.16 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.16 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.65 / defence 0.75 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.28 / defence 0.80, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 24% | Draw 37% | Bayer Leverkusen 39%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 38%, Bayer Leverkusen 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.