Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 37%, yet in-form 1. FC Köln provide a compelling counter-argument — this Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln meet at SchücoArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Arminia Bielefeld's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld at SchücoArena this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Arminia Bielefeld are significantly better at SchücoArena than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Köln have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
1. FC Köln arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Arminia Bielefeld lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2021, ended 1–3 with 1. FC Köln winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Arminia Bielefeld — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 40% versus 1. FC Köln 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 40% | 1. FC Köln 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.33 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.724 / defence 1.164 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.825 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.256. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Arminia Bielefeld games / 47 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 37% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Köln 31%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Köln 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arminia Bielefeld are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Köln (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 50% | 1. FC Köln 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 37% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Köln 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.33 / 1. FC Köln 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.724 / def 1.164 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.825 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.21
1. FC Köln xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln?
Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 37% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln?
Record (2 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Arminia Bielefeld's attack rating (0.72) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.82x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
37%
2.72
32%
3.10
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.54
1.21
1. FC Köln xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
8%
12.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.21 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Arminia Bielefeld have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 10W 14D 23L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln's form line: 13W 15D 19L from 47 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.15 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 0.91 PPG from 23 outings (5W 6D 12L).
On the road, 1. FC Köln have gone 6W 7D 10L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.26 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 10W 14D 23L in their last 47 games (0.94 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 13W 15D 19L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or 1. FC Köln away?
1. FC Köln's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 0.91 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Arminia Bielefeld
1
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when 1. FC Köln 3-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 39%, 1. FC Köln 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 52% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 44% of games; 1. FC Köln in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play 1. FC Köln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 56% of 1. FC Köln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 52% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 14, as Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.33 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.21 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.72 / defence 1.16 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.82 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 37% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Köln 31%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 40%, 1. FC Köln 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arminia Bielefeld 0.94 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.