Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 38%, yet in-form Arminia Bielefeld provide a compelling counter-argument — this Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln meet at SchücoArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 September 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Arminia Bielefeld's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Köln have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Arminia Bielefeld's 1.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Arminia Bielefeld register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, 1. FC Köln in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.67 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.968 / defence 1.150 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.795. Data: 1 Arminia Bielefeld games / 1 1. FC Köln games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 34% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 38%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | 1. FC Köln 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Köln are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Arminia Bielefeld (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 34% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 70% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.67 / 1. FC Köln 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.968 / def 1.150 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.795 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.75
1. FC Köln xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 26 September 2020 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln?
Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 0 1. FC Köln.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 34% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Arminia Bielefeld's attack rating (0.97) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.85x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
34%
2.94
28%
3.54
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.42
1.75
1. FC Köln xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
6%
17.00
7%
14.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.75 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Arminia Bielefeld have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Köln's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Arminia Bielefeld are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Köln.
Attack vs Defence
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. 1. FC Köln's attacking output running into Arminia Bielefeld's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
1. FC Köln
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Arminia Bielefeld
1
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when 1. FC Köln 3-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 100% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 100% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arminia Bielefeld defy the odds to beat 1. FC Köln 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat 1. FC Köln 1-0 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.67 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.75 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Köln landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 34% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 38%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Arminia Bielefeld win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 0%, 1. FC Köln 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Arminia Bielefeld arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Arminia Bielefeld conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Köln managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.