1899 Hoffenheim 0-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 74%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 30 as 1899 Hoffenheim welcome SpVgg Greuther Fürth to PreZero Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
1899 Hoffenheim's home record at PreZero Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — 1899 Hoffenheim are significantly better at PreZero Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.30 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 0 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 9.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 6–3 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 9.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1899 Hoffenheim 55% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1899 Hoffenheim 66% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 2.68 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.100 / defence 0.959 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.709 / defence 1.509. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.322. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.509 — this is suppressing 1899 Hoffenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 1899 Hoffenheim games / 29 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 74% | Draw 16% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 9%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 11.11. The model has a clear lean to 1899 Hoffenheim (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1899 Hoffenheim are the pick at 74% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 70% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 74% | Draw 16% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 56% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 2.68 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.100 / def 0.959 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.709 / def 1.509 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.68
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
0.90
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
56%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 74% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (1 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 1W | Draws 0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating (1.10) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 2.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 3-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
74%
1.35
16%
6.17
9%
10.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
3 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.68
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.58
0.90
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.17
16%
Draw
10.56
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
7%
14.53
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
1%
153.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.68 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 0.90 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1899 Hoffenheim come into this having played 29 games, going 13W 5D 11L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 0.55 PPG from 29 outings (3W 7D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
1899 Hoffenheim carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
1899 Hoffenheim's home form reads 8W 3D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — 1899 Hoffenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.14 points per game from 14 outings (0W 2D 12L). That's a step down from their 0.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1899 Hoffenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.83 scored and 2.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 13W 5D 11L in their last 29 games (1.52 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 7D 19L in their last 29 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.93 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
1899 Hoffenheim
1
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when 1899 Hoffenheim 0-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1899 Hoffenheim at 64%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 93% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 71% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 93% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1899 Hoffenheim's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 30, as 1899 Hoffenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.68 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.90 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 2.7 short of their projected output. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.71 / defence 1.51, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 74% | Draw 16% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 9%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 66%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1899 Hoffenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.