1899 Hoffenheim 1-3 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees SC Freiburg travel to PreZero Arena to take on 1899 Hoffenheim. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 January 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 2W 1D 3L at PreZero Arena — 1.17 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SC Freiburg — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1899 Hoffenheim 0.90 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 85% and SC Freiburg 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 69% | SC Freiburg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.68 xG and SC Freiburg 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.113 / defence 1.160 | SC Freiburg attack 0.736 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.569. SC Freiburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing 1899 Hoffenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 1899 Hoffenheim games / 13 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 42% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 27%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | SC Freiburg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1899 Hoffenheim are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 67% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 42% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.68 / SC Freiburg 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.113 / def 1.160 | SC Freiburg attack 0.736 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.569 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.34
SC Freiburg xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 January 2021 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 3 SC Freiburg.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 42% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating (1.11) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
42%
2.37
30%
3.29
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.02
1.34
SC Freiburg xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
5%
19.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.34 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 4W 3D 6L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg's form line: 4W 5D 4L from 13 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.15 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.54 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 85% of their recent games; SC Freiburg in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or SC Freiburg away?
SC Freiburg's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.17 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1899 Hoffenheim
3
Draws
5
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1899 Hoffenheim see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 67%, SC Freiburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (1899 Hoffenheim) and 50% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1899 Hoffenheim have failed to score in 33% of games; SC Freiburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 50% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 50% of SC Freiburg's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1899 Hoffenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-3 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.68 xG and SC Freiburg 1.34 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SC Freiburg outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against SC Freiburg attack 0.74 / defence 1.26, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 42% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 27%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual SC Freiburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 69%, SC Freiburg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.15 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.