1899 Hoffenheim 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 28 as 1899 Hoffenheim welcome Bayer Leverkusen to PreZero Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 12 April 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim at PreZero Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1899 Hoffenheim at 1.10 PPG versus Bayer Leverkusen's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Bayer Leverkusen trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 70% and Bayer Leverkusen 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1899 Hoffenheim 74% | Bayer Leverkusen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.40 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.088 / defence 1.151 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.756 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.369. Data: 27 1899 Hoffenheim games / 27 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 41% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 31%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Bayer Leverkusen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1899 Hoffenheim 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Monday 12 Apr 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 41% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.40 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.088 / def 1.151 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.756 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Bayer Leverkusen xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 12 April 2021 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 41% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim's attack at 1.09x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.57
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
2.59
1.19
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
8%
12.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.19 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1899 Hoffenheim come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 6D 13L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (12W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1899 Hoffenheim's home form reads 5W 2D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.62 points per game from 13 outings (6W 3D 4L).
The Goals Picture
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.67 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 8W 6D 13L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 12W 7D 8L in their last 27 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.31 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: 1899 Hoffenheim have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1899 Hoffenheim
1
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 62%, Bayer Leverkusen 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 46% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 38%; Bayer Leverkusen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of 1899 Hoffenheim's recent matches and 38% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 46% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1899 Hoffenheim's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen finished level at 0-0 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.40 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.19 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.09 / defence 1.15 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.76 / defence 1.06, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 41% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 31%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 74%, Bayer Leverkusen 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.