1. FC Köln 0-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
RheinEnergieStadion plays host to 1. FC Köln versus VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 20 February 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Köln have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 1W 3D 6L at RheinEnergieStadion — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at RheinEnergieStadion this season.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 0.90 for VfB Stuttgart. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Köln register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, VfB Stuttgart in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: 1. FC Köln 0W, VfB Stuttgart 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 57% and VfB Stuttgart 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 57% | VfB Stuttgart 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.51 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.835 / defence 1.273 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.073 / defence 1.529. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.448. VfB Stuttgart bring a strong defensive rating of 1.529 — this is suppressing 1. FC Köln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 1. FC Köln games / 21 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 28% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 47%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | VfB Stuttgart 2.13. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 70% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 28% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.51 / VfB Stuttgart 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.835 / def 1.273 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.073 / def 1.529 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.98
VfB Stuttgart xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 February 2021 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart?
1. FC Köln 0 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 28% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Köln 0W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 0W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Köln's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.07x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
28%
3.53
24%
4.12
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.49
1.98
VfB Stuttgart xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
14%
7.23
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
4%
25.52
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.98 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 6D 10L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart's form line: 6W 8D 7L from 21 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.24 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 0.60 PPG from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L). That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.81 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 76%.
Last 21 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 8D 7L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 0.60 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
VfB Stuttgart go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 on 18 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
6
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 1, VfB Stuttgart have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 3-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for 1. FC Köln, 70% for VfB Stuttgart — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for 1. FC Köln and 70% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of 1. FC Köln's games and 70% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 70% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out 1. FC Köln 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat 1. FC Köln 0-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.51 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.98 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Köln fell 1.5 short of their projected output. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.83 / defence 1.27 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.07 / defence 1.53, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 28% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 47%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 57%, VfB Stuttgart 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.00 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.