1. FC Köln 1-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Köln and Union Berlin meet at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
1. FC Köln (all games): 0W 3D 4L across 7 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.43 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieStadion: 0W 1D 3L from 4 Bundesliga appearances (0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin have collected 1.71 PPG across 7 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.29 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Union Berlin are 1.28 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.71 vs 0.43). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Köln register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Union Berlin in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 86% and Union Berlin 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 43% | Union Berlin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.08 xG and Union Berlin 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.803 / defence 1.272 | Union Berlin attack 0.910 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.578. Data: 7 1. FC Köln games / 7 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 19% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 52%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Union Berlin 1.92. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 100% | Union Berlin 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 19% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.08 / Union Berlin 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.803 / def 1.272 | Union Berlin attack 0.910 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.578 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Union Berlin xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 November 2020 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
1. FC Köln 1 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin part of?
1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 19% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 2.29 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 0.80x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.91x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
19%
5.28
29%
3.41
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.90
1.83
Union Berlin xG
5.28
19%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
16%
6.21
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
3%
32.80
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.83 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Köln come into this having played 7 games, going 0W 3D 4L for 0.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Köln's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.67 points per game from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 2.29 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Union Berlin away?
Union Berlin's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 0.33 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
6
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 1, Union Berlin have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Union Berlin tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for 1. FC Köln, 100% for Union Berlin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (1. FC Köln) and 33% (Union Berlin).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of 1. FC Köln's games and 100% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 33% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out 1. FC Köln 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat 1. FC Köln 1-2 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.08 xG and Union Berlin 1.83 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.80 / defence 1.27 against Union Berlin attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 19% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 52%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 43%, Union Berlin 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.