1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to RheinEnergieStadion to face 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieStadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — 1. FC Köln are significantly better at RheinEnergieStadion than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Köln lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 68% and Bayer Leverkusen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 53% | Bayer Leverkusen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.96 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.967 / defence 1.006 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.944 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.858 / away 1.320. Data: 47 1. FC Köln games / 47 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 53% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 24%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Bayer Leverkusen 4.17. 1. FC Köln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 70% | Bayer Leverkusen 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 53% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.96 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.967 / def 1.006 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.944 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.858 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bayer Leverkusen xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1. FC Köln 1 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 53% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 1 | Bayer Leverkusen 2W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 0.97x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (0.94x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
53%
1.87
23%
4.44
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.21
1.25
Bayer Leverkusen xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
14%
7.08
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
3%
29.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.25 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Köln come into this having played 47 games, going 18W 15D 14L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.62 PPG from 47 outings (22W 10D 15L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.62 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Köln's home form reads 12W 6D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.57 points per game from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.15 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 18W 15D 14L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.83 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 0-4 on 16 Dec 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
1
Draws
7
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for 1. FC Köln, 70% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for 1. FC Köln and 70% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of 1. FC Köln's games and 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bayer Leverkusen defy the odds to beat 1. FC Köln 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat 1. FC Köln 1-2 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.96 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.25 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Köln fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.94 / defence 1.09, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 53% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 24%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Bayer Leverkusen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 53%, Bayer Leverkusen 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.47 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.