1. FC Köln 3-1 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Köln at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld meet at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Köln (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieStadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Arminia Bielefeld's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. 1. FC Köln's 1.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Arminia Bielefeld's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for 1. FC Köln, 1 for Arminia Bielefeld and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Arminia Bielefeld — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 62% versus Arminia Bielefeld 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 55% | Arminia Bielefeld 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.66 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.914 / defence 0.979 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.640 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.281. Data: 64 1. FC Köln games / 64 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 57% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 17%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Arminia Bielefeld 5.88. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Köln (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 40% | Arminia Bielefeld 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 57% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.66 / Arminia Bielefeld 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.914 / def 0.979 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.640 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Arminia Bielefeld xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld?
1. FC Köln 3 - 1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 57% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 1 | Arminia Bielefeld 1W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 0.91x the league average against Arminia Bielefeld's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.64x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
57%
1.77
27%
3.75
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.46
0.80
Arminia Bielefeld xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
3%
31.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 0.80 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Köln come into this having played 64 games, going 21W 19D 24L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Arminia Bielefeld sit at 0.95 PPG from 64 outings (14W 19D 31L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 0.95 for Arminia Bielefeld. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Köln's home form reads 11W 9D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Arminia Bielefeld have taken 0.84 points per game from 32 outings (6W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.77 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Current Season
Arminia Bielefeld
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 21W 19D 24L in their last 64 games (1.28 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 14W 19D 31L in their last 64 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.31 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
1
Draws
1
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when 1. FC Köln 3-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 62%, Arminia Bielefeld 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (1. FC Köln) and 41% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Arminia Bielefeld?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 34% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 41% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
1. FC Köln cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Arminia Bielefeld.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.66 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.80 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.64 / defence 1.13, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 57% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 17%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 55%, Arminia Bielefeld 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.28 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.