1. FC Köln 3-1 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld meet at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 January 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Köln (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieStadion: 0W 3D 6L from 9 Bundesliga appearances (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at RheinEnergieStadion this season.
Arminia Bielefeld's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for 1. FC Köln, 1 for Arminia Bielefeld and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2020, ended 0–1 with Arminia Bielefeld winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Arminia Bielefeld — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 56% versus Arminia Bielefeld 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 56% | Arminia Bielefeld 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 0.92 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.658 / defence 1.308 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.530 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.454. 1. FC Köln's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 1. FC Köln games / 18 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 31% | Draw 34% | Arminia Bielefeld 36%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Arminia Bielefeld 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arminia Bielefeld as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Köln 67% | Arminia Bielefeld 38%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 31% | Draw 34% | Arminia Bielefeld 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG 1. FC Köln 0.92 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.658 / def 1.308 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.530 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Arminia Bielefeld xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 31 January 2021 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld?
1. FC Köln 3 - 1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 31% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Köln 0W | Draws 0 | Arminia Bielefeld 1W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 0.66x the league average against Arminia Bielefeld's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.53x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
31%
3.25
34%
2.97
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
1.93
1.01
Arminia Bielefeld xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 14.7 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.01 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Köln come into this having played 18 games, going 3W 6D 9L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arminia Bielefeld sit at 0.94 PPG from 18 outings (5W 2D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 0.94 for Arminia Bielefeld. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Köln's home form reads 0W 3D 5L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.38 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Arminia Bielefeld have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.78 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 3W 6D 9L in their last 18 games (0.83 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 5W 2D 11L in their last 18 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
Arminia Bielefeld's away record (0.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 0.38 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
1
Draws
1
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when 1. FC Köln 3-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 62%, Arminia Bielefeld 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (1. FC Köln) and 38% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 38% of games; Arminia Bielefeld in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Arminia Bielefeld?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 38% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 38% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Arminia Bielefeld.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 0.92 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.01 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.66 / defence 1.31 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.53 / defence 1.14, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 31% | Draw 34% | Arminia Bielefeld 36%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 56%, Arminia Bielefeld 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 0.83 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.