VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Bochum at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfL Bochum host SV Darmstadt 98 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfL Bochum — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. VfL Bochum have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfL Bochum's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Vonovia Ruhrstadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, VfL Bochum have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfL Bochum register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for VfL Bochum, 1 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
VfL Bochum in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Bochum 62% versus SV Darmstadt 98 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 46% | SV Darmstadt 98 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.17 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.729 / defence 0.843 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.839 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.566. VfL Bochum's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 VfL Bochum games / 37 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 37% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 34%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Bochum as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Bochum offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: VfL Bochum 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 37% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG VfL Bochum 1.17 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.729 / def 0.843 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.839 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.566 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
1.11
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
Where is VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 37% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (4 meetings): VfL Bochum 1W | Draws 2 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
VfL Bochum (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates VfL Bochum's attack at 0.73x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus VfL Bochum's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
37%
2.69
29%
3.50
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
2.27
1.11
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.11 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfL Bochum's recent record stands at 12W 11D 14L from 37 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for VfL Bochum, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 11L across 37 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Bochum on 1.27 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VfL Bochum have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 3W 8D 8L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Bochum come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.49 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Bochum have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Early Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 12W 14D 11L in their last 37 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
VfL Bochum's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 1.53 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Bochum's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
VfL Bochum
2
Draws
1
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 4 meetings on record, VfL Bochum have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when VfL Bochum 3-3 SV Darmstadt 98.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 58%, SV Darmstadt 98 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (VfL Bochum) and 63% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Bochum play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of VfL Bochum's games and 68% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of VfL Bochum's matches and 63% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
VfL Bochum have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.