SV Wehen 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Wehen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Wehen vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg make the trip to BRITA-Arena to face SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 9 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
SV Wehen (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Wehen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Wehen have posted 5W 3D 2L at BRITA-Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Nürnberg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for SV Wehen, 1.30 for 1. FC Nürnberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SV Wehen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SV Wehen lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SV Wehen — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Wehen 59% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 46% | 1. FC Nürnberg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.61 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.852 / defence 1.076 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.911 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.396. Data: 20 SV Wehen games / 54 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 43% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Nürnberg 33%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Wehen at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Wehen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: SV Wehen 60% | 1. FC Nürnberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 9 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 43% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Nürnberg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG SV Wehen 1.61 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.852 / def 1.076 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.911 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: SV Wehen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
1.37
1. FC Nürnberg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Wehen vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SV Wehen vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 9 February 2024 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SV Wehen 1 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SV Wehen vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SV Wehen vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 43% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Wehen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SV Wehen and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Wehen vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (1 meetings): SV Wehen 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Nürnberg 1W.
What form are SV Wehen and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
SV Wehen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SV Wehen's attack at 0.85x the league average against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (0.91x) against SV Wehen's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Wehen Win
43%
2.31
24%
4.13
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
2.98
1.37
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
6%
15.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for SV Wehen and 1.37 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, SV Wehen have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 9W 5D 8L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for SV Wehen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg's form line: 9W 5D 8L from 22 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for SV Wehen against 1.45 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SV Wehen have posted 1.80 PPG from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L).
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Wehen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Wehen are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.36 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 22 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Wehen and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 games (1.45 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
SV Wehen's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.80 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Wehen
1
Draws
1
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Wehen have won 0, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when SV Wehen 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Wehen 60%, 1. FC Nürnberg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (SV Wehen) and 70% (1. FC Nürnberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Wehen play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SV Wehen's games and 60% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Wehen vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of SV Wehen's matches and 70% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do SV Wehen and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
SV Wehen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Wehen and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Wehen and 1. FC Nürnberg finished level at 1-1 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.61 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.91 / defence 1.15, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 43% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Nürnberg 33%, with SV Wehen to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 46%, 1. FC Nürnberg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Wehen 1.45 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.