SV Elversberg 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
SV Elversberg (all games): 3W 1D 3L across 7 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. SV Elversberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, SV Elversberg have gone 1W 0D 2L this season (3 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.43 PPG for SV Elversberg against 1.20 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
SV Elversberg half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 57% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Elversberg 71% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.62 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.806 / defence 1.430 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.801 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.346. Data: 7 SV Elversberg games / 41 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 40% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 36%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Elversberg 67% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 40% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG SV Elversberg 1.62 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.806 / def 1.430 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.801 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.54
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Elversberg 1 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 40% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.86 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SV Elversberg's attack rating (0.81) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.80x) against SV Elversberg's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
40%
2.51
24%
4.17
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.17
1.54
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
9%
11.73
7%
14.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.54 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, SV Elversberg have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 3W 1D 3L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SV Elversberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for SV Elversberg against 1.14 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SV Elversberg have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That actually lags their 1.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.71 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.00 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Elversberg won 6-0 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Elversberg have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Elversberg
2
Draws
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for SV Elversberg, 67% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for SV Elversberg and 67% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 33% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SV Elversberg's games and 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SV Elversberg's matches and 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth finished level at 1-1 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.62 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.54 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.81 / defence 1.43 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.80 / defence 1.18, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 40% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 36%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 71%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.43 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.