SV Darmstadt 98 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 54%, yet in-form SpVgg Greuther Fürth provide a compelling counter-argument — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended SV Darmstadt 98 5–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a SV Darmstadt 98 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 56% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 64% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.82 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.037 / defence 0.937 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.883 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.272. Data: built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 27 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 61.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 54% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.85 | Draw 3.86 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.96. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SpVgg Greuther Fürth (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Darmstadt 98 50% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 28 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 54% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.82 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.037 / def 0.937 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.883 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.05
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth FAQs
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 28) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 54% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (1.04) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 27 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.86
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.88
1.05
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
3%
30.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.05 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 11W 15D 35L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 23W 15D 23L from 61 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D.
Put side by side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SV Darmstadt 98.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 0.83 PPG from their last 30 home games (6W 7D 17L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 8W 7D 15L from their last 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.48 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98 (Home) vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Form FAQs
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 11W 15D 35L in their last 61 games (0.79 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 23W 15D 23L in their last 61 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 0.83 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 May 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-0 SV Darmstadt 98.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 50%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 53% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 43% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 47% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 53% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 87% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Darmstadt 98 edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.82 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.05 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 0.8 short of their projected output. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.88 / defence 1.18, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 54% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 64%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with SV Darmstadt 98 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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