SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Holstein Kiel make the trip to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to face SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Friday 21 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's home record at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor: 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
Holstein Kiel (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in SV Darmstadt 98's favour (2.40 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: SV Darmstadt 98 1W, Holstein Kiel 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 3–1 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Holstein Kiel half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 56% versus Holstein Kiel 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Darmstadt 98 65% | Holstein Kiel 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 2.55 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.169 / defence 0.840 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.139 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.295. Holstein Kiel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 46 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 65% | Draw 18% | Holstein Kiel 16%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.54 | Draw 5.56 | Holstein Kiel 6.25. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | Holstein Kiel 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 65% | Draw 18% | Holstein Kiel 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 66% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 2.55 / Holstein Kiel 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.169 / def 0.840 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.139 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Holstein Kiel xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 21 October 2022 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 65% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel?
Record (2 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 1 | Holstein Kiel 0W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (1.17) and Holstein Kiel's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (1.14x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
65%
1.53
18%
5.54
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.79
1.24
Holstein Kiel xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
8%
12.82
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
1%
77.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.24 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 46 games, going 26W 9D 11L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.39 PPG from 46 outings (17W 13D 16L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 14W 5D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (6W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.50 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 63%.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 26W 9D 11L in their last 46 games (1.89 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Holstein Kiel away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.04 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.13 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or Holstein Kiel been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Holstein Kiel in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 0-3 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
4
Draws
0
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel?
From 7 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, Holstein Kiel have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 2-2 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 48% for SV Darmstadt 98, 83% for Holstein Kiel — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 74% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 83% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 74% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 13, as SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 2.55 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.24 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.17 / defence 0.84 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.14 / defence 1.42, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 65% | Draw 18% | Holstein Kiel 16%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 65%, Holstein Kiel 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.