SV Darmstadt 98 6-1 FC Ingolstadt 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as SV Darmstadt 98 take on FC Ingolstadt 04.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees FC Ingolstadt 04 travel to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 0W 0D 2L from 2 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 have recorded 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. FC Ingolstadt 04 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.00 PPG (SV Darmstadt 98) versus 0.00 (FC Ingolstadt 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.02 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.837 / defence 1.203 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.721 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 0.891 / away 1.282. FC Ingolstadt 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 2 FC Ingolstadt 04 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 29% | Draw 38% | FC Ingolstadt 04 33%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | FC Ingolstadt 04 3.03. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 29% | Draw 38% | FC Ingolstadt 04 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.02 / FC Ingolstadt 04 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.837 / def 1.203 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.721 / def 1.371 | league avg home 0.891 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.11
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
SV Darmstadt 98 6 - 1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 29% chance of winning, FC Ingolstadt 04 a 33% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Ingolstadt 04 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Ingolstadt 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Ingolstadt 04 in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (0.84) and FC Ingolstadt 04's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Ingolstadt 04's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.46
38%
2.65
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.13
1.11
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
3.46
29%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.11 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Ingolstadt 04's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 0.00 PPG, FC Ingolstadt 04 on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; FC Ingolstadt 04 are on 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
FC Ingolstadt 04
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Ingolstadt 04 in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Ingolstadt 04?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Ingolstadt 04 last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when FC Ingolstadt 04 0-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Ingolstadt 04?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / FC Ingolstadt 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play FC Ingolstadt 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 50% of FC Ingolstadt 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 100% of FC Ingolstadt 04's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Ingolstadt 04 tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Ingolstadt 04 in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 6-1 hammering of FC Ingolstadt 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat FC Ingolstadt 04 6-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.02 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.11 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 5.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.72 / defence 1.37, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 29% | Draw 38% | FC Ingolstadt 04 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual SV Darmstadt 98 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 50%, FC Ingolstadt 04 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 0.00 PPG, FC Ingolstadt 04 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 scored 6 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. FC Ingolstadt 04 shipped 6 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.