SC Paderborn 07 3-4 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as SC Paderborn 07 welcome Werder Bremen to Benteler-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 12:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 2W 3D 5L at Benteler-Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Werder Bremen stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Werder Bremen have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Werder Bremen's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SC Paderborn 07's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Werder Bremen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, Werder Bremen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 4–1 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 74% and Werder Bremen 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 63% | Werder Bremen 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.24 xG and Werder Bremen 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.793 / defence 1.183 | Werder Bremen attack 1.087 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.344. SC Paderborn 07's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 SC Paderborn 07 games / 19 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 25% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 47%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Werder Bremen 2.13. Werder Bremen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | Werder Bremen 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights