SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Benteler-Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 11 December 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 2W 3D 3L at Benteler-Arena — 1.12 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.38 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.38 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SV Darmstadt 98 arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 88% of relevant games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 88%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 75% and SV Darmstadt 98 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 62% | SV Darmstadt 98 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.34 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.860 / defence 1.197 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.213 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.291. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. SV Darmstadt 98 have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 SC Paderborn 07 games / 16 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 25% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 47%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.13. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 88% | SV Darmstadt 98 88% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Benteler-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 25% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.34 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.860 / def 1.197 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.213 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.88
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Benteler-Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SC Paderborn 07 0 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Benteler-Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 25% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (0.86) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.21x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
25%
4.08
28%
3.54
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.21
1.88
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
4.08
25%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
15%
6.52
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
4%
26.60
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.88 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 16 games, going 7W 6D 3L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.81 PPG from 16 outings (9W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.81 for SV Darmstadt 98. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.69 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.38 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 7W 6D 3L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 9W 2D 5L in their last 16 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.12 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.38 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 3-0 on 15 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
4
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for SC Paderborn 07, 88% for SV Darmstadt 98 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for SC Paderborn 07 and 88% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 88% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 88% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Darmstadt 98 edge out SC Paderborn 07 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat SC Paderborn 07 0-1 at Benteler-Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.34 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.88 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.86 / defence 1.20 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.21 / defence 1.21, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 25% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 47%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 62%, SV Darmstadt 98 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.69 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.