SC Paderborn 07 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.

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Match Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 2 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

SC Paderborn 07's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

SC Paderborn 07 are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 3 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended SC Paderborn 07 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 72% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 72% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.85 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.949 / defence 1.117 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.916 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.528. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Paderborn 07's projected output up. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 53 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 53.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 44% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.27 | Draw 4.21 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 60% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% (last 10 away games).

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