SC Paderborn 07 1-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg meet at Benteler-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 5W 2D 2L across 9 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.89 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.22 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 games at Benteler-Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.89 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Benteler-Arena this season.
SSV Jahn Regensburg have collected 2.00 PPG across 9 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 1L. Last five: L D D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.22 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 2W 1D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.89 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 2.00 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 67% and SSV Jahn Regensburg 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 78% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.03 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.971 / defence 1.165 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.833 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.459. Data: 9 SC Paderborn 07 games / 9 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 24% | Draw 34% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 42%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: SC Paderborn 07 75% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 25%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Benteler-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 24% | Draw 34% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.03 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.971 / def 1.165 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.833 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.42
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 15 October 2021 at Benteler-Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Benteler-Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 24% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 42% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 2.22 / GA 1.11 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 5W-3D-1L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.22 / GA 1.11 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.97x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.83x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
24%
4.25
34%
2.91
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.44
1.42
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
4.25
24%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
6%
17.50
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.42 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 5W 2D 2L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form line: 5W 3D 1L from 9 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-D. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 2.00 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 1.89 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 2.22 scored and 1.11 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.00 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 1.75 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or SSV Jahn Regensburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 3-0 on 10 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
2
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-0 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 75%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (SC Paderborn 07) and 25% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 25% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of SC Paderborn 07's recent games and 25% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Benteler-Arena, Regular Season - 10, as SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.03 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.42 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.97 / defence 1.17 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 24% | Draw 34% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 42%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 78%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.89 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.