SC Paderborn 07 7-2 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus Holstein Kiel in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 20 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 4W 4D 2L at Home Deluxe Arena — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Holstein Kiel (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.90 for Holstein Kiel — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Holstein Kiel in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 1W, Holstein Kiel 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 4–3 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Holstein Kiel half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 60% and Holstein Kiel 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | Holstein Kiel 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.49 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.506 / defence 0.928 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.053 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.324. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.506 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 SC Paderborn 07 games / 38 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 64% | Draw 18% | Holstein Kiel 18%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.56 | Draw 5.56 | Holstein Kiel 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 60% | Holstein Kiel 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 64% | Draw 18% | Holstein Kiel 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 67% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.49 / Holstein Kiel 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.506 / def 0.928 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.053 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Holstein Kiel xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel?
SC Paderborn 07 7 - 2 Holstein Kiel.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 64% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 18% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel?
Record (2 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 0 | Holstein Kiel 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (1.51) and Holstein Kiel's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (1.05x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
64%
1.57
18%
5.53
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.79
1.29
Holstein Kiel xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.53
18%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
8%
12.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
2%
65.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.29 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 12D 10L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.39 PPG from 38 outings (14W 11D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.39 for Holstein Kiel. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 6W 7D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.45 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Holstein Kiel in 61%.
Last 38 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 16W 12D 10L in their last 38 games (1.58 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 14W 11D 13L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Holstein Kiel away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.32 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 7-2 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
4
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, Holstein Kiel have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Holstein Kiel 2-0 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for SC Paderborn 07, 84% for Holstein Kiel — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for SC Paderborn 07 and 74% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 84% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 74% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Paderborn 07 run riot with a 7-2 hammering of Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Holstein Kiel 7-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.49 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.29 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 7-2 for 9 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.51 / defence 0.93 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.05 / defence 1.13, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 64% | Draw 18% | Holstein Kiel 18%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 60%, Holstein Kiel 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.58 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.