SC Paderborn 07 0-2 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 39%, yet in-form SC Paderborn 07 provide a compelling counter-argument — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Hannover 96 travel to Home Deluxe Arena to take on SC Paderborn 07. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's home record at Home Deluxe Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Home Deluxe Arena this season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hannover 96 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07 are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of SC Paderborn 07: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for Hannover 96, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SC Paderborn 07 and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Hannover 96 trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 65% and Hannover 96 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 59% | Hannover 96 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.56 xG and Hannover 96 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.152 / defence 0.988 | Hannover 96 attack 1.215 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.329. Hannover 96 have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 SC Paderborn 07 games / 46 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 38% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 39%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Hannover 96 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hannover 96 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Paderborn 07 (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | Hannover 96 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 38% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.56 / Hannover 96 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.152 / def 0.988 | Hannover 96 attack 1.215 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Hannover 96 xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
SC Paderborn 07 0 - 2 Hannover 96.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 38% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96?
Record (8 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 5W | Draws 2 | Hannover 96 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Hannover 96 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.15x the league average against Hannover 96's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
38%
2.67
24%
4.24
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.16
1.59
Hannover 96 xG
2.67
38%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
8%
13.14
8%
12.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.59 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 24W 12D 10L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hannover 96's form line: 19W 15D 12L from 46 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.83 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.83 PPG from 23 outings (13W 3D 7L).
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 8W 8D 7L from 23 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.37 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 24W 12D 10L in their last 46 games (1.83 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 19W 15D 12L in their last 46 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Hannover 96 away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.83 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.39 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2022, when SC Paderborn 07 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Paderborn 07
3
Draws
2
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, Hannover 96 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Hannover 96 1-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 70%, Hannover 96 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for SC Paderborn 07 and 61% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Hannover 96 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Hannover 96?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 56% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 61% of Hannover 96's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hannover 96 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SC Paderborn 07.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat SC Paderborn 07 0-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.56 xG and Hannover 96 1.59 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Hannover 96 attack 1.22 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 38% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 39%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 59%, Hannover 96 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Hannover 96's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.83 PPG, Hannover 96 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.