SC Paderborn 07 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 77%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host Arminia Bielefeld at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's home record at Home Deluxe Arena: 8W 0D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Home Deluxe Arena. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Paderborn 07 at 1.40 PPG versus Arminia Bielefeld's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Arminia Bielefeld in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 57% versus Arminia Bielefeld 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 65% | Arminia Bielefeld 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.66 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.546 / defence 0.950 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.619 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.289. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.546 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Arminia Bielefeld bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 SC Paderborn 07 games / 15 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 77% | Draw 15% | Arminia Bielefeld 8%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.30 | Draw 6.67 | Arminia Bielefeld 12.50. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 77% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: SC Paderborn 07 40% | Arminia Bielefeld 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 77% | Draw 15% | Arminia Bielefeld 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 50% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.66 / Arminia Bielefeld 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.546 / def 0.950 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.619 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Arminia Bielefeld xG
50%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld?
SC Paderborn 07 0 - 2 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 77% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.55x the league average against Arminia Bielefeld's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arminia Bielefeld's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
77%
1.29
15%
6.83
8%
12.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.42
0.76
Arminia Bielefeld xG
1.29
77%
Home win
6.83
15%
Draw
12.66
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
7%
14.34
Win to Nil
36%
2.76
1%
181.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 0.76 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 21W 14D 14L from 49 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arminia Bielefeld, meanwhile, have gone 8W 15D 26L across 49 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arminia Bielefeld heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 10W 7D 8L from 25 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arminia Bielefeld's away record stands at 3W 5D 17L across 25 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.92 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 49 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 21W 14D 14L in their last 49 games (1.57 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 8W 15D 26L in their last 49 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.48 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.56 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Arminia Bielefeld been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Arminia Bielefeld in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting Arminia Bielefeld specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
1
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 4 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 64%, Arminia Bielefeld 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (SC Paderborn 07) and 40% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Arminia Bielefeld?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 44% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of SC Paderborn 07's recent games and 40% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SC Paderborn 07.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat SC Paderborn 07 0-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.66 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.76 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 2.7 short of their projected output. Arminia Bielefeld outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.55 / defence 0.95 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.62 / defence 1.21, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 77% | Draw 15% | Arminia Bielefeld 8%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a Arminia Bielefeld win, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 65%, Arminia Bielefeld 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Arminia Bielefeld winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.