SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as SSV Jahn Regensburg welcome FC St. Pauli to Jahnstadion Regensburg. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SSV Jahn Regensburg — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jahnstadion Regensburg, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SSV Jahn Regensburg at 0.90 PPG versus FC St. Pauli's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, FC St. Pauli 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with FC St. Pauli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play tendencies (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SSV Jahn Regensburg 62% and FC St. Pauli 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SSV Jahn Regensburg 76% | FC St. Pauli 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.86 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.143 / defence 1.319 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.800 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.489. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 21 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 43% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 31%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | FC St. Pauli 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 90% | FC St. Pauli 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 43% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.86 / FC St. Pauli 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.143 / def 1.319 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.800 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.489 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.57
FC St. Pauli xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 3 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 43% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli?
Record (1 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 1.14x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.89
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
3.44
1.57
FC St. Pauli xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
9%
11.16
5%
20.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.57 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 21 games, going 9W 4D 8L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 1.81 PPG from 21 outings (11W 5D 5L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SSV Jahn Regensburg on 1.48 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 2.00 scored and 1.38 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC St. Pauli in 62%.
Last 21 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 9W 4D 8L in their last 21 games (1.48 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 11W 5D 5L in their last 21 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or FC St. Pauli away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.55 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SSV Jahn Regensburg's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
3
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when FC St. Pauli 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SSV Jahn Regensburg at 82%, FC St. Pauli at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 91% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 64% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 73% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 64% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 91% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 64% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.86 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.57 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC St. Pauli outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.14 / defence 1.32 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.80 / defence 1.42, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 43% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 31%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC St. Pauli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 76%, FC St. Pauli 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.48 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.