Holstein Kiel 1-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel host Fortuna Düsseldorf at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's home record at Holstein-Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Holstein-Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Holstein Kiel are significantly better at Holstein-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Holstein Kiel at 1.50 PPG versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Holstein Kiel, 0 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Holstein Kiel winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 64% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 66% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.55 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.192 / defence 0.981 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.885 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.261. Data: 47 Holstein Kiel games / 47 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 47% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 25%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 4.00. Holstein Kiel hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Holstein Kiel 50% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 47% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.55 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.192 / def 0.981 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.885 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 47% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (2 meetings): Holstein Kiel 1W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Holstein Kiel's attack at 1.19x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.55
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.65
1.09
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
5%
18.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.09 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 17W 14D 16L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form line: 17W 13D 17L from 47 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Holstein Kiel on 1.38 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (11W 5D 7L).
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 6W 6D 11L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.43 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 17W 14D 16L in their last 47 games (1.38 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 17W 13D 17L in their last 47 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.65 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Holstein Kiel go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Holstein Kiel
2
Draws
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 4, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 44%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Holstein Kiel) and 44% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 48% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Holstein Kiel's recent games and 44% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Düsseldorf defy the odds to beat Holstein Kiel 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Holstein Kiel 1-2 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.55 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.09 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.19 / defence 0.98 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 47% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 25%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Düsseldorf win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 66%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.38 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.