Holstein Kiel 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg meet at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Holstein Kiel have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Holstein-Stadion this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Holstein Kiel, 1.10 for 1. FC Nürnberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Holstein Kiel 2W, 1. FC Nürnberg 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 3–2 with Holstein Kiel winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Holstein Kiel half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 69% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 66% | 1. FC Nürnberg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.77 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.976 / defence 1.256 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.750 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.307. 1. FC Nürnberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Holstein Kiel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Holstein Kiel games / 61 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 50% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Nürnberg 27%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.70. Holstein Kiel hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Holstein Kiel as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 100% | 1. FC Nürnberg 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 50% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Nürnberg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.77 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.976 / def 1.256 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.750 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.23
1. FC Nürnberg xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Holstein Kiel 2 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 50% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (3 meetings): Holstein Kiel 2W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Nürnberg 1W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (0.98) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (0.75x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.28
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.00
1.23
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
5%
22.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.23 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Holstein Kiel's recent record stands at 21W 19D 21L from 61 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 24L across 61 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Holstein Kiel against 1.33 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Holstein Kiel have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 8W 10D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.18 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 21W 19D 21L in their last 61 games (1.34 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 22W 15D 24L in their last 61 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.43 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Holstein Kiel won 0-4 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Holstein Kiel have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 8 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 4, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Holstein Kiel 2-3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 57%, 1. FC Nürnberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Holstein Kiel and 57% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 57% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.77 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.23 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.98 / defence 1.26 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.75 / defence 1.20, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 50% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Nürnberg 27%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 66%, 1. FC Nürnberg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.34 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.