Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hertha BSC host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Olympiastadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hertha BSC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hertha BSC have posted 3W 4D 3L at Olympiastadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hertha BSC 1.60 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Hertha BSC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, with 1 draws in between.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Hertha BSC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hertha BSC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 49% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 49% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.99 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.097 / defence 0.924 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.080 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.534. Data: 37 Hertha BSC games / 37 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 48% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.33. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 70% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Olympiastadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 48% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Hertha BSC 1.99 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.097 / def 0.924 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.080 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.53
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Olympiastadion.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 48% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (8 meetings): Hertha BSC 5W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W.
What form are Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (1.10) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
48%
2.06
22%
4.61
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.52
1.53
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
14%
7.30
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
4%
24.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.53 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 17W 9D 11L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 11W 8D 18L from 37 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Hertha BSC are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hertha BSC have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 4W 3D 11L from 18 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.43 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Defensively: Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 17W 9D 11L in their last 37 games (1.62 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 11W 8D 18L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.44 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Hertha BSC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 5, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 44%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hertha BSC) and 67% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 39% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Hertha BSC's games and 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.