Hertha BSC 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hertha BSC host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Olympiastadion Berlin in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 32). Kick-off is Sunday 4 May 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Hertha BSC — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Hertha BSC have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Hertha BSC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Hertha BSC have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2024, ended Hertha BSC 1–2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 71% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 71% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.36 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.874 / defence 0.996 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.722 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.330. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Hertha BSC's last 65 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 65.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 45% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.24 | Draw 3.29 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.03. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hertha BSC 70% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 32 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 45% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Hertha BSC 1.36 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.874 / def 0.996 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.722 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth FAQs
What time does Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hertha BSC 1 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 32) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 45% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (0.87) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hertha BSC's last 65 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
45%
2.24
30%
3.29
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.32
0.96
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
6%
15.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 0.96 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 24W 16D 25L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 23W 16D 26L from 65 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 1.35 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hertha BSC have posted 1.34 PPG from their last 32 home games (11W 10D 11L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 8W 7D 17L from their last 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
Hertha BSC (Home) vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hertha BSC
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
❓ Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Form FAQs
What form are Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 24W 16D 25L in their last 65 games (1.35 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 23W 16D 26L in their last 65 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.34 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Hertha BSC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2023, when Hertha BSC won Hertha BSC 5-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Hertha BSC have won 6, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 69%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Hertha BSC) and 50% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Hertha BSC's games and 44% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hertha BSC's matches and 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 81% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hertha BSC edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.36 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.96 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.72 / defence 1.09, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 45% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 71%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.35 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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