Hertha BSC 3-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hertha BSC face SC Paderborn 07.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 make the trip to Olympiastadion Berlin to face Hertha BSC in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Hertha BSC (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Hertha BSC's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Hertha BSC against 1.50 for SC Paderborn 07. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 64% and SC Paderborn 07 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hertha BSC 61% | SC Paderborn 07 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.84 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.075 / defence 1.009 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.028 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.328. Data: built from Hertha BSC's last 10 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 44.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 28%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.11 | Draw 4.07 | SC Paderborn 07 3.57. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hertha BSC's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hertha BSC 50% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 11 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Hertha BSC 1.84 / SC Paderborn 07 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.075 / def 1.009 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.028 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.38
SC Paderborn 07 xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 FAQs
What time does Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Hertha BSC 3 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 11) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 47% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 1.07x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.03x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from Hertha BSC's last 10 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
47%
2.11
25%
4.07
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.21
1.38
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
4%
22.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.38 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hertha BSC come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 8D 25L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.59 PPG from 44 outings (20W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Hertha BSC's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across their last 21 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 21 away games (6W 8D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.91 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 64%.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Hertha BSC (Home) vs SC Paderborn 07 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hertha BSC
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 Form FAQs
What form are Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 11W 8D 25L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 10D 14L in their last 44 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.29 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: SC Paderborn 07 have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won SC Paderborn 07 5-2 Hertha BSC on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hertha BSC
0
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hertha BSC have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: SC Paderborn 07 5-2 Hertha BSC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 57%, SC Paderborn 07 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hertha BSC) and 67% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Hertha BSC's games and 62% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Hertha BSC's matches and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 76% of SC Paderborn 07's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SC Paderborn 07.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat SC Paderborn 07 3-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.84 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.38 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 28%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 61%, SC Paderborn 07 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Hertha BSC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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