Hansa Rostock 2-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Hansa Rostock welcome SpVgg Greuther Fürth to Ostseestadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Hansa Rostock's home record at Ostseestadion: 1W 1D 8L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 1.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Hansa Rostock's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hansa Rostock have won 0, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hansa Rostock in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 45% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 47% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.40 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.764 / defence 1.422 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.928 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.306. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Hansa Rostock games / 28 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 31% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 45%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.22. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 31% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.40 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.764 / def 1.422 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.928 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.72
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hansa Rostock 2 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 31% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (1 meetings): Hansa Rostock 0W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hansa Rostock's attack at 0.76x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
31%
3.20
23%
4.27
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
3.12
1.72
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
3.20
31%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
6%
17.91
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.72 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Hansa Rostock have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 17W 15D 30L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 12W 18D 32L from 62 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hansa Rostock on 1.06 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hansa Rostock have posted 0.87 PPG from 31 outings (7W 6D 18L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 7D 22L from 31 away games — 0.42 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hansa Rostock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.08 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 69%.
Last 62 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 17W 15D 30L in their last 62 games (1.06 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 12W 18D 32L in their last 62 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (0.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 0.87 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 4 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Hansa Rostock 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 52%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hansa Rostock) and 77% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Hansa Rostock's games and 74% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 77% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hansa Rostock cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.40 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.72 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.76 / defence 1.42 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.93 / defence 1.18, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 31% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 45%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Hansa Rostock win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 47%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.06 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hansa Rostock win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.