Hansa Rostock 1-3 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karlsruher SC at 81%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC meet at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 0.71 xG and Karlsruher SC 3.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 3.069. Data: 0 Hansa Rostock games / 0 Karlsruher SC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 4% | Draw 14% | Karlsruher SC 81%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 25.00 | Draw 7.14 | Karlsruher SC 1.23. The model has a clear lean to Karlsruher SC (81%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karlsruher SC are the pick at 81% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.71 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 4% | Draw 14% | Karlsruher SC 81% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 50% | xG Hansa Rostock 0.71 / Karlsruher SC 3.00 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 3.069 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
3.00
Karlsruher SC xG
50%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Hansa Rostock 1 - 3 Karlsruher SC.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 4% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 81% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.85) and Karlsruher SC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karlsruher SC's attack (0.85x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 3.00.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 0-3 (11.1%), 0-4 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
4%
23.53
14%
7.00
81%
1.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
11.1%
Away win
0 – 4
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
3.71
3.00
Karlsruher SC xG
23.53
4%
Home win
7.00
14%
Draw
1.23
81%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
5%
20.09
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
0%
–
40%
2.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 3.00 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Pre-Season
Karlsruher SC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Karlsruher SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Hansa Rostock
2
Draws
4
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 0, Karlsruher SC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Hansa Rostock 1-2 Karlsruher SC.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC?
Karlsruher SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Karlsruher SC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karlsruher SC beat Hansa Rostock 1-3 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 0.71 xG and Karlsruher SC 3.00 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 4% | Draw 14% | Karlsruher SC 81%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 81%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.