Hansa Rostock 0-2 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Schalke 04 at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees FC Schalke 04 travel to Ostseestadion to take on Hansa Rostock. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hansa Rostock stand at 2W 1D 4L from 7 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hansa Rostock have posted 1W 0D 2L at Ostseestadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Schalke 04 — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Schalke 04 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Schalke 04's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hansa Rostock 1.00 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Hansa Rostock trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
FC Schalke 04 trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hansa Rostock 57% and FC Schalke 04 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hansa Rostock 71% | FC Schalke 04 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.17 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.966 / defence 1.391 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.844 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.455. Data: 7 Hansa Rostock games / 7 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 24% | Draw 29% | FC Schalke 04 48%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | FC Schalke 04 2.08. FC Schalke 04 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Schalke 04 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 100% | FC Schalke 04 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 24% | Draw 29% | FC Schalke 04 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.17 / FC Schalke 04 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.966 / def 1.391 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.844 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.71
FC Schalke 04 xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 2 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 24% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04 in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.71 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hansa Rostock's attack at 0.97x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
24%
4.23
29%
3.47
48%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.88
1.71
FC Schalke 04 xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.11
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
4%
23.31
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.71 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hansa Rostock come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 1D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Schalke 04 sit at 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Schalke 04 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hansa Rostock's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Schalke 04 have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.43 PPG overall record — FC Schalke 04 travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Schalke 04 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.57 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Schalke 04 in 71%.
Last 7 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
FC Schalke 04
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
FC Schalke 04's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Schalke 04 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
3
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04?
From 4 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, FC Schalke 04 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when FC Schalke 04 2-1 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hansa Rostock at 100%, FC Schalke 04 at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Hansa Rostock and 67% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Hansa Rostock's games and 33% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 67% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Schalke 04 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat Hansa Rostock 0-2 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.17 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.71 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hansa Rostock fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.97 / defence 1.39 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 24% | Draw 29% | FC Schalke 04 48%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 71%, FC Schalke 04 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Schalke 04 arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.