Hamburger SV 1-1 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 18 as Hamburger SV welcome FC Schalke 04 to Volksparkstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hamburger SV — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hamburger SV have posted 4W 5D 0L at Volksparkstadion — 1.89 PPG. They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Hamburger SV) versus 1.90 (FC Schalke 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hamburger SV, 0 for FC Schalke 04 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2021, ended 3–1 with Hamburger SV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
FC Schalke 04 in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 71% and FC Schalke 04 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 53% | FC Schalke 04 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.54 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.254 / defence 0.951 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.816 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.282. Hamburger SV carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 Hamburger SV games / 17 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 47% | Draw 31% | FC Schalke 04 22%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | FC Schalke 04 4.55. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 78% | FC Schalke 04 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 47% | Draw 31% | FC Schalke 04 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Hamburger SV 1.54 / FC Schalke 04 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.254 / def 0.951 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.816 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.99
FC Schalke 04 xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04?
Hamburger SV 1 - 1 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 47% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 1W | Draws 0 | FC Schalke 04 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 1.25x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
47%
2.11
31%
3.27
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.53
0.99
FC Schalke 04 xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
5%
21.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 0.99 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Hamburger SV have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 7W 8D 2L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Schalke 04's form line: 9W 2D 6L from 17 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.71 PPG, FC Schalke 04 on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hamburger SV have posted 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (4W 4D 0L).
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 4W 1D 3L from 8 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.94 scored and 1.29 conceded. FC Schalke 04's attacking output running into Hamburger SV's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Schalke 04 in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 7W 8D 2L in their last 17 games (1.71 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 9W 2D 6L in their last 17 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or FC Schalke 04 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, FC Schalke 04 in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hamburger SV
3
Draws
0
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 3, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when FC Schalke 04 2-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Schalke 04 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 75%, FC Schalke 04 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Hamburger SV) and 38% (FC Schalke 04). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hamburger SV's games and 38% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Hamburger SV's matches and 38% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 18, as Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.54 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.99 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.25 / defence 0.95 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.82 / defence 0.95, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 47% | Draw 31% | FC Schalke 04 22%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 53%, FC Schalke 04 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.71 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.