Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees SV Darmstadt 98 travel to Merkur Spiel-Arena to take on Fortuna Düsseldorf. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 6W 2D 2L at Merkur Spiel-Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Fortuna Düsseldorf) versus 2.20 (SV Darmstadt 98). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% versus SV Darmstadt 98 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% | SV Darmstadt 98 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.37 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.150 / defence 0.968 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.974 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.284. SV Darmstadt 98's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 61 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 33%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | SV Darmstadt 98 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% | SV Darmstadt 98 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.37 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.150 / def 0.968 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.974 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 41% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (3 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 2W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.15x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.79
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.58
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.21 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 61 games, going 24W 16D 21L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.93 PPG from 61 outings (35W 13D 13L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 14W 9D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.77 points per game from 30 outings (16W 5D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.87 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 24W 16D 21L in their last 61 games (1.44 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 35W 13D 13L in their last 61 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.70 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SV Darmstadt 98 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 70%, SV Darmstadt 98 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 57% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 57% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 57% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out SV Darmstadt 98 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SV Darmstadt 98 1-0 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.37 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.15 / defence 0.97 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.97 / defence 0.79, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 33%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, SV Darmstadt 98 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.