Fortuna Düsseldorf 4-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf host SSV Jahn Regensburg at Merkur Spiel-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record at Merkur Spiel-Arena: 6W 3D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Fortuna Düsseldorf are significantly better at Merkur Spiel-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 0, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 54% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.46 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.139 / defence 1.009 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.887 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.435. Data: 39 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 39 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% | Draw 25% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 33%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% | Draw 25% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.46 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.139 / def 1.009 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.887 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.28
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 4 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 41% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (2 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W | Draws 2 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack rating (1.14) and SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
41%
2.43
25%
3.92
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.74
1.28
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
8%
12.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.28 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent record stands at 13W 13D 13L from 39 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SSV Jahn Regensburg, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 16L across 39 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.33 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fortuna Düsseldorf have managed 7W 7D 5L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record stands at 5W 6D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 1.41 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 13W 13D 13L in their last 39 games (1.33 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 12W 11D 16L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.47 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fortuna Düsseldorf go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2022, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting SSV Jahn Regensburg specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 74%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 37% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 42% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent games and 37% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortuna Düsseldorf run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 4-0 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.46 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.28 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.14 / defence 1.01 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.89 / defence 0.86, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% | Draw 25% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 33%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.33 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.