Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome Hansa Rostock to Merkur Spiel-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Fortuna Düsseldorf are significantly better at Merkur Spiel-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hansa Rostock have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1 for Hansa Rostock and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2022, ended 3–0 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% versus Hansa Rostock 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% | Hansa Rostock 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.14 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.301 / defence 0.917 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.762 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.347. Fortuna Düsseldorf carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 41 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 65% | Draw 20% | Hansa Rostock 15%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Hansa Rostock 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% | Hansa Rostock 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 65% | Draw 20% | Hansa Rostock 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.14 / Hansa Rostock 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.301 / def 0.917 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.762 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Hansa Rostock xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3 - 1 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 65% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock?
Record (2 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W | Draws 0 | Hansa Rostock 1W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
65%
1.54
20%
5.04
15%
6.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.08
0.94
Hansa Rostock xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
6.50
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
2%
55.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 0.94 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 13D 14L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.22 PPG from 41 outings (13W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.34 PPG, Hansa Rostock on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 8W 7D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.12 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 14W 13D 14L in their last 41 games (1.34 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.55 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2022, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 70%, Hansa Rostock 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 55% for Hansa Rostock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Hansa Rostock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 40% of Hansa Rostock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 55% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Hansa Rostock 3-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.14 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.94 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.30 / defence 0.92 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.76 / defence 1.09, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 65% | Draw 20% | Hansa Rostock 15%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, Hansa Rostock 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.34 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.