Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome Hansa Rostock to Düsseldorf Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Düsseldorf Arena, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.20 PPG, Hansa Rostock 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Fortuna Düsseldorf have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Hansa Rostock have managed just 1 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fortuna Düsseldorf and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Hansa Rostock trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% versus Hansa Rostock 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% | Hansa Rostock 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.65 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.975 / defence 1.122 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.668 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.399. Data: 56 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 56 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 51% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 24%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Hansa Rostock 4.17. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 90% | Hansa Rostock 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Düsseldorf Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 51% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.65 / Hansa Rostock 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.975 / def 1.122 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.668 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Hansa Rostock xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Düsseldorf Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Düsseldorf Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 51% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock?
Record (5 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 4W | Draws 0 | Hansa Rostock 1W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.07
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.69
1.05
Hansa Rostock xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
5%
21.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.05 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 56 games, going 26W 13D 17L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.12 PPG from 56 outings (18W 9D 29L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 15W 7D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (8W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 0.96 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 games (1.62 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 18W 9D 29L in their last 56 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.86 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2022, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 71%, Hansa Rostock 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 50% (Hansa Rostock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 36% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 50% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Hansa Rostock 2-0 at Düsseldorf Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.65 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.05 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hansa Rostock landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.97 / defence 1.12 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.67 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 51% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 24%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%, Hansa Rostock 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.