Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-2 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Köln meet at Merkur Spiel-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Düsseldorf have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 7W 2D 1L at Merkur Spiel-Arena — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur Spiel-Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
1. FC Köln's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Köln's form when playing away from home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Fortuna Düsseldorf's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Fortuna Düsseldorf half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% versus 1. FC Köln 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% | 1. FC Köln 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.49 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.940 / defence 0.727 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.072 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.406. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 5 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 44% | Draw 31% | 1. FC Köln 25%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | 1. FC Köln 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 30% | 1. FC Köln 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 44% | Draw 31% | 1. FC Köln 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.49 / 1. FC Köln 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.940 / def 0.727 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.072 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.10
1. FC Köln xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Köln?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 2 1. FC Köln.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 44% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Köln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Köln in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (1.07x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
44%
2.29
31%
3.21
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.59
1.10
1. FC Köln xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
6%
17.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.10 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 22W 9D 8L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Köln's form line: 7W 13D 19L from 39 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Köln.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 1.79 PPG from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L).
On the road, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 9D 8L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.03 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 39 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
1. FC Köln
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 22W 9D 8L in their last 39 games (1.92 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 7W 13D 19L in their last 39 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.79 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or 1. FC Köln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, 1. FC Köln in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
0
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Köln?
From 2 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 0, 1. FC Köln have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when 1. FC Köln 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%, 1. FC Köln 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 37% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; 1. FC Köln in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 63% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent games and 37% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 6, as Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Köln drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.49 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.10 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.94 / defence 0.73 against 1. FC Köln attack 1.07 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 44% | Draw 31% | 1. FC Köln 25%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, 1. FC Köln 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.