FC Ingolstadt 04 0-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees SV Darmstadt 98 travel to Audi-Sportpark to take on FC Ingolstadt 04. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Ingolstadt 04's home record at Audi-Sportpark: 1W 3D 5L from 9 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SV Darmstadt 98 are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Ingolstadt 04, 1 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–6 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Ingolstadt 04 trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Ingolstadt 04 53% versus SV Darmstadt 98 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Ingolstadt 04 68% | SV Darmstadt 98 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 1.01 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.818 / defence 1.233 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.078 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.344. Data: 19 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 19 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 19% | Draw 27% | SV Darmstadt 98 54%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | SV Darmstadt 98 1.85. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Ingolstadt 04 56% | SV Darmstadt 98 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 19% | Draw 27% | SV Darmstadt 98 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 1.01 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.818 / def 1.233 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.078 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.79
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
FC Ingolstadt 04 0 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 19% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (1 meetings): FC Ingolstadt 04 0W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Ingolstadt 04's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus FC Ingolstadt 04's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
19%
5.23
27%
3.67
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
2.79
1.79
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
5.23
19%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
3%
31.22
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.79 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Ingolstadt 04 come into this having played 19 games, going 2W 4D 13L for 0.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for FC Ingolstadt 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.36 PPG clear of FC Ingolstadt 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Ingolstadt 04's home form reads 1W 3D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.89 points per game from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.26 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 2W 4D 13L in their last 19 games (0.53 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 11W 3D 5L in their last 19 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 0.67 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.89 PPG.
Have FC Ingolstadt 04 or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Darmstadt 98 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
0
Draws
2
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when FC Ingolstadt 04 0-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Ingolstadt 04 at 56%, SV Darmstadt 98 at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 67% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC Ingolstadt 04's games and 78% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Ingolstadt 04's matches and 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Ingolstadt 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat FC Ingolstadt 04 0-2 at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 1.01 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.79 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Ingolstadt 04 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.82 / defence 1.23 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 19% | Draw 27% | SV Darmstadt 98 54%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 68%, SV Darmstadt 98 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.53. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.