1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 2 September 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Voith-Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: 1. FC Heidenheim 1W, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fortuna Düsseldorf half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 50% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 52% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.51 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.973 / defence 0.877 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.879 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.447. Data: 40 1. FC Heidenheim games / 40 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 46% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 28%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.57. 1. FC Heidenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 70% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 46% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.51 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.973 / def 0.877 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.879 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Heidenheim 2 - 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 46% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 1W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 0.97x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (0.88x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.90
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.63
1.11
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
6%
16.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.11 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 40 games, going 18W 9D 13L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.38 PPG from 40 outings (14W 13D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.38 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 11W 5D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.11 points per game from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.42 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 60%.
Last 40 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 18W 9D 13L in their last 40 games (1.58 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 14W 13D 13L in their last 40 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.00 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 63%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 47% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 53% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent games and 47% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.51 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.11 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 46% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 28%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 52%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.58 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.