Erzgebirge AUE 0-3 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzgebirge AUE vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to Erzgebirgsstadion to face Erzgebirge AUE in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 May 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Erzgebirge AUE's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Erzgebirge AUE at Erzgebirgsstadion this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Werder Bremen have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Werder Bremen's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Werder Bremen are 0.80 PPG clear of Erzgebirge AUE in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Erzgebirge AUE 0W, Werder Bremen 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 0–4 with Werder Bremen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Erzgebirge AUE half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Erzgebirge AUE 53% and Werder Bremen 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Erzgebirge AUE 62% | Werder Bremen 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 1.09 xG and Werder Bremen 2.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.783 / defence 1.541 | Werder Bremen attack 1.209 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.445. Erzgebirge AUE's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Erzgebirge AUE's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Werder Bremen have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 2.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Erzgebirge AUE games / 32 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 11% | Draw 19% | Werder Bremen 69%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 9.09 | Draw 5.26 | Werder Bremen 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Werder Bremen (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.09 / 2.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Erzgebirge AUE 50% | Werder Bremen 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzgebirge AUE vs Werder Bremen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Erzgebirgsstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 11% | Draw 19% | Werder Bremen 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 64% | xG Erzgebirge AUE 1.09 / Werder Bremen 2.69 • Poisson strength factors: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.783 / def 1.541 | Werder Bremen attack 1.209 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Expected Goals
2.69
Werder Bremen xG
64%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzgebirge AUE vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Erzgebirge AUE vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What was the final score in Erzgebirge AUE vs Werder Bremen?
Erzgebirge AUE 0 - 3 Werder Bremen.
Where is Erzgebirge AUE vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What competition is Erzgebirge AUE vs Werder Bremen part of?
Erzgebirge AUE vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Erzgebirge AUE vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Erzgebirge AUE a 11% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 69% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge AUE vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Erzgebirge AUE and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Erzgebirge AUE vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and Werder Bremen?
Record (1 meetings): Erzgebirge AUE 0W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 1W.
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and Werder Bremen in?
Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Erzgebirge AUE's attack at 0.78x the league average against Werder Bremen's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (1.21x) against Erzgebirge AUE's defence (1.54x) — and the away total comes out at 2.69.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (8.2%), 1-3 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
11%
8.98
19%
5.14
69%
1.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Total xG
3.79
2.69
Werder Bremen xG
8.98
11%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
1.44
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
7%
14.79
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
1%
132.77
23%
4.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzgebirge AUE vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Erzgebirge AUE and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Erzgebirge AUE and 2.69 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzgebirge AUE vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Erzgebirge AUE have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 5W 8D 19L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Werder Bremen's form line: 16W 9D 7L from 32 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Werder Bremen are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Erzgebirge AUE.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Erzgebirge AUE have posted 0.75 PPG from 16 outings (3W 3D 10L).
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 9W 3D 4L from 16 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Erzgebirge AUE are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.88 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen in 69%.
Last 32 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzgebirge AUE
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Erzgebirge AUE have gone 5W 8D 19L in their last 32 games (0.72 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 16W 9D 7L in their last 32 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzgebirge AUE at home or Werder Bremen away?
Werder Bremen's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzgebirge AUE at home: 0.75 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Erzgebirge AUE
0
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and Werder Bremen?
From 2 meetings on record, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzgebirge AUE and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2022, when Erzgebirge AUE 0-3 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Erzgebirge AUE and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzgebirge AUE 50%, Werder Bremen 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Erzgebirge AUE and 88% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzgebirge AUE have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzgebirge AUE home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzgebirge AUE play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Erzgebirge AUE's games and 75% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Erzgebirge AUE vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Erzgebirge AUE's matches and 88% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Erzgebirge AUE and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Erzgebirge AUE have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Erzgebirge AUE.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Erzgebirge AUE 0-3 at Erzgebirgsstadion, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzgebirge AUE 1.09 xG and Werder Bremen 2.69 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Erzgebirge AUE fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.78 / defence 1.54 against Werder Bremen attack 1.21 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzgebirge AUE 11% | Draw 19% | Werder Bremen 69%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzgebirge AUE 62%, Werder Bremen 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.72. Form held, and they took the win. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.